Index creation for individually unique objects like residential real estate and art
requires a different approach than used for an index of stocks, bonds and commodities.
This is due to the infrequency of trading and differences in the characteristics of the
objects that come to market from period to period. Thus for art and real estate an index
based on average prices over a period of time may be more dependent on the mix of objects
that come to market rather than changes in the underlying market itself. A database of
repeat sales of the same object resolves this issue. Our database for art now has over
13,000 repeat sale auction pairs and approximately 1,000 additional pairs are included
each year.
We use a statistical methodology to create our index which is similar to that developed
by Professors Case and Shiller for their residential real estate index published by
Standard and Poor's.
To insure transparency for our art indexes we only collect data based on public auction
results. We gather data continuously on the New York art market from Sotheby's and
Christie's auction houses and have gone back to 1925 to start our analysis. For the major
art collecting categories; old master and 19th centaury; American before 1950; impressionist
and modern; Latin American; and post war and contemporary we search the current sale
catalogues for items that have sold. For those items which also have a listed prior auction
sale we use our best research efforts to obtain the consummated prior sale price at any
auction house, anyplace in the world and at any date. If the object has been held for at
least a year and we have successfully found both the sale and purchase prices including the
relevant buyer's premium we include it in our database. Thus, we introduce no subjective
sample selection bias. We start our current annual All Art index with data available from
1925 since that is the start date for the S&P 500 total return index which we use for
comparison purposes. Our All Art index explains approximately 70% of the variability
of a measure of the underlying returns of the objects on which it is based.
We intend to publish the new value of the Mei Moses® All Art annual index during the
first week of January of each year. Using newly collected data, we update the index using
the return estimated for the past year. (Note that, while the new data added may improve
the estimates of prior years, we will not retrofit the index published before.) The year end
value for 1925, the starting year for our index, was 1.0 and the 2007 year end value of our
index was 279.42 and the 2008 year end value was 267.1. Information on historic performance
of our indexes is available to registered premium users of this website. For customers
interested in a more detailed description of the data and methodology please see our article,
Art as an Investment and the Underperformance of Masterpieces, in the December 2002 issue
of the American Economic Review.
Since our indexes are annual indexes, for consistency, we assume that all purchases and sales
take place on the last day of the year. To obtain statically meaningful results, we have found
an annual time period to be the shortest time period that is feasible. The statistical
methodology used to create the indexes requires substantial and uninterrupted data in each time
period. Our indexes explain from 50-72% of the variation of a measure of the returns of the
underlying objects.
In general, and this year in particular, many art market participants would like to have some
information on the tenor of the market during the year. To try to satisfy this demand, we
decided to issue periodic index tracking updates during the year. We are now getting sufficient,
and timely, incremental data during a year so that at periodic intervals we can recreate our
index with the sales that have transpired during the year up to that date. We treat the sales
in each successive year-to-date period as if they represented transactions for a full year.
These tracking values assume that no additional repeat sale pairs would be added to our
database between the end of the relevant tracking period of the year and the end of the year
for each collecting category. The latest tracking information is also available to premium
members of this website.
We intend to issue these tracking reports after the first three, six and ten moths of each calendar
year. This approach is for tracking purposes only. We are not now providing and do not intend in
the future to publish, long term return, risk or correlation studies based on this tracking
information. We have not studied whether these interim tracking results are good or bad predictors
of the final year end index values.
We must also point out that prior performance of our indexes is no guarantee of future results.
We are not financial advisors or in the business of recommending art as an investment.
Investment decision should be based on the risk return tolerance and time horizon of the
nvestor with, if desired the support of a licensed financial advisor. This information and
the information on our website is provided "as is" and no representations or warranties either
express or implied of accuracy, merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose or of any other
nature are made with respect to this information or to any expressed views presented in this
information.